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Prediction for CME (2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-09T07:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42546/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Halo CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-11-09T07:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and in the NE by STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is an X1.7 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27E03) which peaked at 2025-11-09T07:35Z seen in GOES SUVI 131. Dimming and field line movement associated with this flare seen in GOES SUVI 171, 193 and 284 appears to have a Northwestern trajectory, suggesting the possibility of deflection. This CME has appears to have a very asymmetric morphology from the perspective of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. There does not appear to be a shock feature associated with this event.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T22:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T16:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 99.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 870
Longitude (deg): 002W
Latitude (deg): 13N
Half-angular width (deg): 39

Notes: Halo CME - NE filament eruption analysed as separate CME that misses.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 40.18 hour(s)
Difference: 6.18 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-11-10T06:00Z

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